By Angela Fritz

The Washington Post

Wild wind in Washington and Oregon: Tens of thousands without power

SEATTLE — Tens of thousands of people remained without power after windstorms struck parts of Washington state and Oregon over the weekend.

Approximately 30,000 Puget Sound Energy customers were without power as of noon Monday.

The utility said on Twitter that workers had restored power to more than 288,000 customers since the height of the storm. Seattle City Light had about 1,000 customers without power as of Monday morning.

In Oregon, the lights were back on for most people.

The storm caused Alaska Airlines to ground flights between 4:20 a.m. and 5:15 a.m. Sunday after a power outage in the Seattle area, where its operations are based. Twenty seven flights were delayed and five were canceled.

The National Weather Service reported winds included gusts of more than 60 mph at the storm’s peak Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

Icy roads: Trucks collide, ignite; drivers dead

SALEM — Two trucks collided on an icy highway in Western Oregon before dawn, killing both drivers and triggering a fire.

The Oregon State Police said the collision happened about 5:20 a.m. Monday on state Highway 18 on a recently opened Newberg-Dundee bypass. Flames were spread across the highway.

Almost five hours later, the stretch of highway remained closed as workers cleaned up spilled diesel fuel.

A car was also involved in the crash. The driver was taken to a hospital with minor injuries.

State police said the icy road is believed to have contributed to the crash.

— The Associated Press

Ostensibly, the partial government shutdown does not affect National Weather Service operations related to its mission to protect lives and property. The agency is considered critical and the “staff continue mission-essential functions,” according to a spokeswoman.

But there are less obvious ways in which the shutdown does affect the weather service — even its operations. Forecasters and managers are not getting paid. Weather models are not being maintained, launched or improved. Emergency managers are not being trained. Effects could stretch well beyond when the government reopens.

The National Weather Service is responsible for the forecast models it uses on a daily basis, from the massive Global Forecast System to the narrowly focused hurricane models, forecasters partner with researchers to improve those systems, or bring them back online when they fail.

Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Maryland, said the main impact has been on the National Weather Service’s new global forecast model, which was scheduled to go live in February but will surely be delayed because of the shutdown.

But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System, the United States’ premiere weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it.

“There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems on Dec. 25,” Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said it’s a national security risk.

Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries which are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though they’re getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data.

“Once the GFS scores start to go bad, it impacts everything,” Saha said. Transportation, the energy sector, national security, agriculture, the stock market, extreme weather. There are about 50 full-time federal employees at EMC and 150 contractors. Only one person is working during the shutdown, she said — a manager who does not work on data or the models. “Things are going to break, and that really worries me because this is our job. We are supposed to improve our weather forecasts, not deteriorate them.”

“To be sitting at home watching scores go down,” Saha said, “it feels terrible. We owe taxpayers the best.”

Winter is a critical time for hurricane model updates, said Eric Blake, the National Weather Service union steward at the National Hurricane Center. In November and December, researchers look back at the storms of the previous season to see how the models did, and try to tweak them to perform better next season. They use the months from January to June to make improvements.

“You evaluate what happened, and you use that to push forward,” Blake said. “Almost none of that is happening” because of the shutdown.

They also use this time to train emergency managers from Texas to Maine before the start of the next hurricane season. That’s not happening, and it’s not clear whether the weeklong sessions will be made up when the government reopens.

Saha said that even without pay, she would be working if she could. The last thing she and her colleagues want is an obvious failure in the forecast models.

“This is what we do. This is what the public never sees,” Saha said. “We work day and night to make sure it never becomes apparent.”

The National Weather Service is a 24-hour operation with often-grueling shift work. Not getting paid to do that job makes it even more stressful. “Federal employees care about what they do,” said one manager of a National Weather Service office, who wished to remain anonymous to speak openly. “As much as we can repeat in our minds, ‘It will be OK, eventually,’ you can’t tell your body to stop worrying. One employee got two hours of sleep last night after going through all his bills, trying to figure out where to start.”