Pile of One Hundred Dollar Bills With Medical Face Mask on Face of Benjamin Franklin (copy)

The economy is sending mixed signals right now.

Inflation reached a four-decade high in May, 8.6%, but there’s solid job growth.

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(1) comment

Transitory Inflation

Soft landing is the unicorn of monetary policy. For the same reasons that the Fed was to slow to raise rates on the rebound, they will be to slow in recognizing they've over-tightened, resulting in a hard landing. When I looked Friday, Federal Fund Rate futures were pricing in the first rate cut of the cycle in Dec22. That cut was brought forward by about three months over the course of just a week. Whatever is coming, it is moving fast.

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