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'Cliff' averted; others loom

• The House passed the bill by a vote of 257-167 as both sides look to what's next

By Bulletin wire reports
Published: January 02. 2013 4:00AM PST

The bill's final form

• The measure would raise taxes by about $600 billion over 10 years compared with tax policies that were due to expire at midnight Monday. It would also delay for two months across-the-board cuts to the budgets of the Pentagon and numerous domestic agencies.
Other points include:
• Income tax rates: Extends decade-old tax cuts on incomes up to $400,000 for individuals, $450,000 for couples. Earnings above those amounts would be taxed at a rate of 39.6 percent, up from the current 35 percent.
• Estate tax: The biggest estates would be taxed at a top rate of 40 percent, up from 35 percent.
• Alternative minimum tax: Permanently addresses the alternative minimum tax and indexes it for inflation to prevent nearly 30 million middle- and upper-middle income taxpayers from being hit with higher tax bills averaging almost $3,000. The tax was originally designed to ensure that the wealthy did not avoid owing taxes by using loopholes.
• Other tax changes: Extends for five years Obama-sought expansions of the child tax credit, the earned income tax credit, and an up-to-$2,500 tax credit for college tuition.
• Unemployment benefits: Extends jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed for one year.
• Social Security payroll tax cut: Allows a 2-percentage-point cut in the payroll tax first enacted two years ago to lapse, which restores the payroll tax to 6.2 percent.
• Across-the-board cuts: Delays for two months $109 billion worth of across-the-board spending cuts set to start striking the Pentagon and domestic agencies this week.
Source: The Associated Press
Our congressman's take
U.S. Rep. Greg Walden, R-Hood River, voted for the plan passed Tuesday by the House of Representatives, 257-167. The plan halts automatic tax increases set to take effect on middle-class taxpayers, while imposing higher rates on those making $400,00 or more.
Walden issued a statement: “Tonight the House passed a plan to permanently extend tax relief for Oregon families and small businesses and to stop our government from going over the fiscal cliff. The plan isn't perfect, but I would not sit by as taxes go up on all Americans, including more than $3,000 this year for the average Oregon family. I didn't come to Washington to see taxes go up on middle-income Americans, and we acted to stop that permanently.
“The plan passed tonight locks into place current tax rates for middle-class families as our economy continues to struggle. It permanently holds down the death tax for small-business owners, farmers and ranchers. It permanently patches the alternative minimum tax and extends the higher child tax credit. The plan does away with a new entitlement program created in 'Obamacare,' and stops the president from giving members of Congress a pay increase as the president proposed. Finally, it extends the existing farm bill for one year as Congress works on a new long-term farm bill.
“Now that tax relief has been extended, it's time for the president to work with Congress to get our nation's fiscal house in order by addressing the underlying problem, which is spending. The national debt is currently $16 trillion and climbing, over $50,000 for every American. We must cut spending and grow our economy to avoid passing on an even bigger debt burden to our children and grandchildren."
— Bulletin staff report

WASHINGTON — Ending a climactic fiscal showdown in the final hours of the 112th Congress, the House late Tuesday passed and sent to President Barack Obama legislation to avert big income tax increases on most Americans and prevent large cuts in spending for the Pentagon and other government programs.

The measure, brought to the House floor less than 24 hours after its passage in the Senate, passed 257-167, with 85 Republicans joining 172 Democrats in voting to allow income taxes to rise for the first time in two decades, in this case for the highest-earning Americans. Voting no were 151 Republicans and 16 Democrats.

First passed by the Senate early Tuesday, the deal will head off the most severe effects of the “fiscal cliff" by averting a dangerous dose of austerity but still leaves the economy vulnerable to both immediate and more distant threats.

The agreement fails to defuse the prospect of a catastrophic national default two months from now. The deal does not raise the debt ceiling, leaving the Treasury to use what it calls “extraordinary measures" as long as it can to pay the government's bills.

And already Tuesday, both sides were maneuvering for the next round in a seemingly ceaseless struggle about taxes and spending.

In a statement after the vote, House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said, “Now the focus turns to spending. The American people re-elected a Republican majority in the House, and we will use it in 2013 to hold the president accountable for the 'balanced' approach he promised, meaning significant spending cuts and reforms to the entitlement programs that are driving our country deeper and deeper into debt."

Obama, meanwhile, hailed the end of the fiscal crisis but to set out a marker for the next one. “The one thing that I think hopefully the new year will focus on is seeing if we can put a package like this together with a little bit less drama, a little less brinkmanship, and not scare the heck out of folks quite as much," he said.

But he warned Republicans against trying to use a forthcoming vote on raising the debt ceiling to extract spending concessions.

“While I will negotiate over many things, I will not have another debate with this Congress over whether or not they should pay the bills they've already racked up through the laws they have passed," he said. “Let me repeat, we can't not pay bills that we've already incurred."

Experts cautious

Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan Chase, cautioned that the deal is a stopgap measure at most.

“What's challenging is that we're still going to have some slowing in growth because of the tax hikes," said Feroli, who estimated Tuesday that the deal would subtract 1 percentage point from already meager growth. “What's not good is that deficits are still going to be large and it doesn't begin to touch the longer-term horizon."

Vincent Reinhart, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, said the agreement does not even relieve the anxiety of businesses and consumers because so many economic challenges are left unresolved.

“There's an immediate fiscal drag, and there's no offsetting bonus in confidence because fiscal uncertainty is still considerable," he said.

Despite the drawbacks, the bipartisan deal may well have been the heaviest lift a deeply divided Congress could have accomplished. And the package, no doubt, has its benefits.

It is likely to prevent the nation from dipping back into recession. It cancels massive tax increases facing middle-class and poor Americans. And it delays deep and blunt government spending cuts for two months.

And while the agreement does nothing to reduce joblessness, it renews unemployment benefits that would have otherwise expired, offering vital help to the jobless and averting another blow to economic activity.

And finally, by raising a little more than $600 billion in fresh tax revenue from the wealthy, the deal takes a step toward bringing spending and taxes into line for the next few years — though economists stress that much more needs to be done over the long run.

Tax effects

Only the most affluent American households would pay higher income taxes this year under the terms of the deal, but most households will face higher payroll taxes because the deal does not extend a 2-year-old tax break.

The legislation will grant most Americans an instant reversal of the income tax increases that took effect with the arrival of the new year. Only about 0.7 percent of households will be subject to an income tax increase this year, according to the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan research group in Washington. The increases will apply almost exclusively to households making at least half a million dollars, the center estimated in an analysis published Tuesday.

But lawmakers' decision not to reverse a scheduled increase in the payroll tax that finances Social Security, while widely expected, still means that about 77 percent of households will pay a larger share of income to the federal government this year, according to the center's analysis.

The tax this year will increase by two percentage points, to 6.2 percent from 4.2 percent, on all earned income up to $113,700.

“It's a huge hit," says Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. “It hits people whether they're making $10,000 or they're making $2 million. It doesn't matter who you are ... The lower your income, the more of your income you're (spending). So if you're taxes go up, it's going to come out of your spending."

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