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Divisionals: Here come the big boys

By Barry Wilner / The Associated Press
Published: January 12. 2013 4:00AM PST

On TV

Today



Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos, 1:30 p.m. (CBS)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, 5 p.m. (Fox)

Sunday



Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, 10 a.m. (Fox)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, 1:30 p.m. (CBS)
Today’s NFL playoff games

Ravens (11-6) At Broncos (13-3)



Line:



Broncos by 9



1





2





Time: 1:30 p.m. PST
The Broncos have the NFL’s longest win streak with 11 straight and are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in those games. The AFC’s top seed beat the Ravens in Baltimore, 34-17, a month ago in a game that wasn’t as close (31-3 after three quarters) as the final score. The talk around Denver this season revolves around QB Peyton Manning, and for good reason. But as good as he has been in the regular season, he’s had less success in the playoffs with a 9-10 record (all with Indy). However, he is 7-2 all-time vs. the Ravens with a 103 QB rating, 18 TDs and 5 INTs. The Ravens are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 road playoff games, but just 1-5 ATS in their past six divisional playoff games. Baltimore wants LB Ray Lewis’ “last ride" to continue, but Denver’s defense is better. On offense, Broncos WRs Demaryius Thomas (1,434 yards, 10 TDs) and Eric Decker (1,064 yards, 13 TDs) will be too much to handle. Cue the postgame shot of Manning and Lewis, two of the best players of their era.

Packers (12-5) At 49ers (11-4-1)



Line:



49ers by 3



Time: 5 p.m.
These two met way back in Week 1 as San Francisco traveled to Lambeau and produced an impressive 30-22 win behind a 20-for-26, two-touchdown performance from some guy named Alex Smith, then the 49ers starting QB. A lot has changed since then. San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh made Colin Kaepernick the starter after Smith went down with an injury on Nov. 11. The Niners are 5-2 (4-3 ATS) with Kaepernick under center. After the Packers struggled to a 2-3 start, they have won 10 of their past 12 and are 9-3 ATS. Green Bay is 5-2-1 ATS in its past eight divisional playoff games. Plus, the Packers continue to get healthier, especially with the return of defensive back Charles Woodson. Key matchup: Can Green Bay’s offensive line keep Aaron Rodgers upright and give him time and space? If they can, I believe the Packers not only cover, but they win.
— John Boell, Newsday
Sunday’s Games Seahawks (12-5) At Falcons (13-3)
Falcons by 21⁄2
Time: 10 a.m.
I can’t remember a team that has had more pressure to win a playoff game the last decade than Atlanta. The Falcons are 0-3 in the playoffs under QB Matt Ryan and coach Mike Smith. Ryan, nicknamed “Matty Ice," has been ice cold in the playoffs, including last year’s 24-2 loss to the Giants. Has there ever been a less heralded, underwhelming, more shaky 13-3 team in NFL history? I think not. The Falcons closed the regular season 3-4-1 ATS in their last eight games. Seattle has won its last six and eight of its last nine overall (7-2 ATS). I went back and forth on this game. There are a few factors that make me lean toward the favorite. Ryan (32 TDs, 4,719 yards this season) is a ridiculous 33-4 all-time at the Georgia Dome. Also, Seattle losing defensive end Chris Clemons (knee) and his 11 sacks will hurt the pass rush and give Ryan more time. Hot-lanta celebrates its first playoff win since Jan. 15, 2005.
Texans (13-4) At Patriots (12-4)
Patriots by 91⁄2
Time: 1:30 p.m.
I’ve been a fan of the Texans all season. In fact, I chose the Texans back in Week 1 as a Super Bowl winner (vs. the Packers). But Houston, they do have a problem, or two. QB Matt Schaub has thrown four TDs and five INTs in his last seven games combined and hasn’t thrown a TD pass since the first quarter against the Colts on December 16. Yikes! Thank goodness the Texans have RB Arian Foster, who has rushed for 425 yards in his first three career playoff games, the most by any player in NFL history. But the brilliance of Patriots coach Bill Belichick is taking away the opposing team’s biggest weapon. The Pats have the defensive front seven to do just that. New England beat the Texans, 42-14, last month, but Belichick says “it’s a bunch of garbage" to expect another blowout. Tom Brady (16-6) is a win away from passing Joe Montana for the most playoff wins by a QB. The Pats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine playoff games, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight home postseason games. Fade the trends. Brady and Belichick get one step closer to winning a fourth Super Bowl trophy.

The records are gaudy. The star power is high.

Here come the NFL’s big boys.

Denver, Atlanta, New England and San Francisco host divisional playoff games this weekend. They’re a combined 49-14-1, and their rosters are filled with such headline grabbers as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Gonzalez and Patrick Willis.

Their home-field advantages could be formidable, too. The Broncos, who have won 11 straight games, and Falcons each went 7-1; the 49ers were 6-1-1 and the Patriots 6-2.

None of which makes the Ravens, Seahawks, Texans or Packers quake in their cleats.

“That’s not in my mind at all going up to Denver," said the Ravens’ Joe Flacco, the only quarterback to win a playoff game in his first five seasons. “We feel confident, and I think we should."

Baltimore at Denver opens the weekend’s action, followed by Green Bay at San Francisco tonight.

Sunday, Seattle is at Atlanta, then Houston goes to New England.

Ravens (11-6) at Broncos (13-3): For all those impressive numbers, here’s a baffling one: four-time league MVP Manning is a mere 9-10 in postseason games. Those wins and losses were compiled with the Colts, with whom he never had a defense like the one the Broncos possess.

That defense made a big difference when Denver won 34-17 at Baltimore in Week 15. A 98-yard interception return by Chris Harris at the end of the first half turned it into a rout.

“I really haven’t made a whole lot of comparisons, but our defense has been outstanding all year," Manning said. “Our offense has fed off of our defense. I think that’s one of the best things this team has done. If the offense was in a rut, defense picked us up. The defense was bending a little bit, the offense picked them up. That’s what you’ve got to have, to me, as a team."

The Manning-Ray Lewis matchups through the years have been intriguing, and this will be the final one.

Baltimore’s emotional leader announced his retirement days before he had 13 tackles in his last home game, a 24-9 wild-card victory over Indianapolis.

“They are always classic," Lewis said. “It’s just one of those chess matches. He knows me very well. I know him very well. ... But at the end of the day, it’s not about me and Peyton. It’s about their team against our team. I love our team right now."

Packers (12-5) at 49ers (11-4-1): Another rematch, but from so long ago: San Francisco won 30-22 in the opener, at Lambeau Field.

The Packers have the edge in this postseason series, 4-1. They would seem to have the edge on offense with top-rated passer Aaron Rodgers and a deep crew of receivers.

And the Niners would have the advantage on defense, having yielded 63 fewer points in the regular season.

A key will be whether Green Bay, which beat Minnesota 24-10 last week, can protect Rodgers after allowing 51 sacks. The 49ers’ Aldon Smith had 19 1⁄2 himself.

“We understand that it’s going to be up to us to keep Aaron clean, let him make some plays back there in the pocket," left guard T.J Lang said. “That’s going to be a huge factor in how this game turns out."

Seahawks (12-5) at Falcons (13-3): Those road woes that plagued the Seahawks can be forgotten. They’ve won three in a row away from home, including the 24-14 wild-card victory at Washington that was their first on the road in the playoffs since 1983.

With six straight wins overall, they’re a confident bunch as they head to the Georgia Dome.

“We’ve grown and become more together and more in tune with our QB and what he can do and all that," Carroll said, referring to rookie Russell Wilson. “We’re a pretty hard team to beat right now."

Atlanta has been easy to beat in its past three playoff appearances, something quarterback Matt Ryan dismisses as a factor for this game.

“We’ve proven we can go out there and be successful. You have to buy into that. You have to believe in that. I feel more comfortable with the guys around me."

Texans (13-4) at Patriots (12-4): Yet another rematch, this from Dec. 10 when the Texans flopped in Foxborough, 42-10. That was the beginning of a fade in which they dropped three of four and sank from top AFC seed to No. 3.

Houston recovered somewhat last week in a 19-13 wild-card victory over Cincinnati. This is a much tougher task.

“If you want to move on, you’ve got to bring a sense of attitude and nastiness with you to go out and dominate your opponent on every play," said QB Matt Schaub, who got his first postseason win last week.

Tom Brady has 16 postseason wins and needs one win to break a tie with Joe Montana.

“He’s won a lot of regular-season games, won a lot of playoff games," coach Bill Belichick said. “What he does on a day-to-day basis, how he performs on the practice field, how he performs in games — whether they’re preseason, regular season, postseason, whatever it is — he’s pretty consistent. I think you see that during the week, so it shows up on Sunday."

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