This is a big week for Oregon’s BCS title hopes.
No, not because the second-ranked Ducks play hapless Colorado. That’ll be a breeze.
The teams directly ahead of Oregon in the BCS standings (Alabama, Florida and Kansas State), and the one right behind (Notre Dame), are all playing ranked foes Saturday.
So the Ducks, fourth in the BCS standings, could get some of the help they need to move up — or they could slip further back in the race to the national championship game.
It’s a bit early to get overly worked up about the BCS pecking order. There are 11 undefeated teams in major college football, and the most there could be at the end of the season is seven. But you can whittle that down to four serious contenders for a spot in the BCS title game in Miami.
Ohio State is ineligible. Ohio University doesn’t play a tough enough schedule. The Big East champion probably won’t be able to climb over the top teams from the Southeastern Conference, Pac-12 and Big 12, and Notre Dame.
Out of the top five teams, Oregon seems to be the most likely to get left out of the national title game if more than two teams finish unbeaten. Excuse Ducks fans if they are a bit skittish. The BCS hasn’t always worked out in their team’s favor (see 2001 and ’05).
Here’s an example of the Ducks’ problems: Notre Dame is at Oklahoma. If the Fighting Irish win, there’s a chance they could jump the Ducks in the BCS standings the way Kansas State did last week. If Oklahoma wins, it makes Kansas State’s victory at Oklahoma look even better and could push the Wildcats further ahead of the Ducks.
The Ducks’ problems come down to schedule. Oregon’s opponents so far just haven’t been particularly good, and it’s especially weighing the Ducks down in the computer ratings.
Oregon is second in both polls that are used in the BCS standings, but sixth in the computer rankings.
And part of Oregon’s strength of schedule problem stems from a game it was supposed to play against Kansas State.
The Wildcats and Ducks had agreed to play a home-and-home series in 2011 and 2012. Oregon asked to reschedule when it got a shot to play LSU in Texas last year.
With the Big 12 headed toward playing nine conference games, Kansas State suggested to cancel the whole thing. The Ducks agreed.
That left the Ducks with Arkansas State, Fresno State and Tennessee Tech to tune up with this season. Oregon easily dispatched all three, but two months into the season the Ducks still don’t have a marquee victory.
Obviously, Kansas State couldn’t have known how this would play out, but it’s looking like one of the best decisions coach Bill Snyder has made since returning to the sidelines.
After Colorado, the Ducks get into the teeth of their conference schedule with Southern California, Stanford and Oregon State all coming up, plus a possible Pac-12 title game (and maybe a rematch against USC). Win all those and the computers will spit out some different numbers on the Ducks.
Will it be enough to catch Kansas State if the Wildcats keep winning? Or fend off Notre Dame? Stay tuned.