Over next 10 years, Central Oregon expected to see strong job growth
Economists say it will be fastest rate in the state
Published: November 18. 2009 4:00AM PST
State economists estimate that 11,000 new jobs will spring up in Central Oregon by 2018, while the state as a whole will see an increase of about 163,000 total jobs.
Job growth in Central Oregon’s three counties — Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook — is expected to rise the fastest in the state, increasing from 2008 staffing numbers by 14 percent, to 92,340 jobs. That’s compared with statewide growth estimated at about 9 percent.
“Over the last 10 years, Central Oregon has grown tons faster than the state,” said Carolyn Eagan, Central Oregon’s regional economist, who helped compile the projections for the region. “There was nothing to me that would indicate that wouldn’t happen after the recession.”
The region could use some of those jobs today. The three counties suffer from some of the state’s highest unemployment. In September, the latest data available on a county level, seasonably adjusted unemployment rates were 15.9 percent, 15.9 percent and 19.7 percent in Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook counties, respectively.
The state, in its job growth projections, didn’t say when those jobs could be expected to start showing up — only how many are expected to be added, in total, over the years leading to 2018. But state economist Tom Potiowsky, in a speech last week in Bend, said he didn’t expect any job growth to occur until, at earliest, 2011 or 2012.
According to Tuesday’s Oregon Employment Department estimates, the education and health services industry is projected to grow the most in the three counties: by more than 2,900 positions, or a 29 percent increase, to nearly 13,000 total jobs. Both the professional and business services industry, and the food and beverage industry should grow by about 18 percent.
Construction will likely continue to lag behind other industries, growing at only 1 percent. Eagan said that construction statewide was at an unsustainable level before the recession, adding that it’s unclear whether the state will reach those levels again.
The projections — used to track job openings, the size of industries and the fastest-growing industries — are released every two years. This most recent projection uses 2008 employment levels as a starting point.
State economists make projections based on factors such as input from the industries and staffing patterns they observe, Eagan said. The projections track jobs in nearly a dozen general industries: everything from manufacturing to leisure and hospitality to government services.
These forecasts can vary, depending on the stability of the economy, Eagan said. When economists made projections based on 2006 staffing levels, they estimated Central Oregon would have about 100,000 jobs in 2016, she said. After the 2008 job losses, the area is now expected to staff about 92,000 positions by 2018.
Besides the creation of new jobs, the state also expects 21,112 positions to open up because people will either retire or move to a different line of work.
Only one industry, information, is expected to decline by 2018. Most others, such as manufacturing, government, leisure and hospitality, and trade, transportation and utilities are expected to grow by between 9 and 14 percent.
During 2008, 4,113 people who worked in construction filed for unemployment insurance, more than any other industry. More than 3,200 people from the manufacturing industry and 1,800 people from retail trade filed for benefits.
U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., co-sponsored legislation Tuesday to reauthorize the Economic Development Administration, an agency that aims to promote economic development in communities whose unemployment rate for the past two years is at least 1 percent higher than the national average or whose per capita income is 80 percent or less than that of the national average, according to a news release from Merkley’s office. The Economic Development Administration has created an estimated 392,000 jobs nationwide since its last authorization, according to the release, and has funded 11 projects in Oregon, totaling $10.58 million, since 2007.
David Holley can be reached at 541-383-0323 or at dholley@bendbulletin.com.
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