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Bend skier Mike O'Shea shreds some powder during a deep-snow, blue-sky afternoon near the Northwest chairlift on Mt. Bachelor last February. The skiing and snowboarding season is nearly here for Central Oregon, as resorts expect to open this month.
Andy Tullis / The Bulletin
Snow time?
El Niņo could mean below-average snowfall this season, but ski resorts remain optimistic
By Mark Morical / The Bulletin
Last modified: November 28. 2009 8:46AM PSTEl Niņo has developed a negative connotation among skiers and snowboarders.
The climate trend that typically brings warmer temperatures and less precipitation to the Pacific Northwest is not encouraging news for ski resorts in the region.
And an El Niņo is expected to be the dominant climate factor this winter in the Northwest, according to Philip Mote, director of Oregon Climate Services at Oregon State University.
But Mote says snowriders should not let that forecast ruin their dreams of slashing through piles of powder this winter at Mount Bachelor, Hoodoo Mountain Resort, Willamette Pass, Mount Hood, or anywhere else in the region.
“For the optimist, I think forecast is the wrong word,” Mote says. “An El Niņo tends to shift Northwest precipitation below average by about 14 percent. But there are plenty of examples of when an El Niņo was accompanied by precipitation in the top third (of winters).”
So skiers and snowboarders should not worry just yet.
But many of us remember last winter, when Central Oregon did not receive its first significant dump of snow until mid-December, forcing area resorts to open later than usual and many skiers and boarders to perform an extended “snow dance.”
It is hard to tell how early we will get a ridable snow base this winter, but signs point to sometime earlier than last season.
“In early winter, the biggest determinant for a ski season, the outlook shows just a small decrease in precipitation,” Mote says.
“We will probably have a pretty good idea in a few more weeks. November is the biggest precipitation month for the Northwest. If we're already at a precipitation deficit by Thanksgiving, that often ends up being a hole that's hard to climb out of.”
Snow is expected to blanket Mount Bachelor and the Central Oregon Cascade Mountains this weekend, but it will likely not be enough to start laying down a base for the ski areas, according to Mote.
Mt. Bachelor ski area's tentative opening date is Nov. 20, and Hoodoo hopes to open by Nov. 27.
“We're looking at this weekend for a return to winterlike weather,” says Alex Kaufman, marketing director for Mt. Bachelor. “Hopefully, it will stick around. We definitely shoot to be up and running a few days before Thanksgiving weekend.”
When temperatures are cool enough (about 28 degrees or lower), Bachelor can use its fleet of snow-makers — which force water and pressurized air through a snow gun — to help lay down a base on the Thunderbird Run near Pine Marten chairlift and the West Village Lodge base area.
The resort also uses the snow-makers for its halfpipe, slopestyle area and terrain parks.
“We go into any season hoping to get a lot of snow — if we don't get it, we make the best of it,” Kaufman says. “If the Northwest does go high and dry, we tend to get similar snow that the Sierras (Sierra Nevada mountains of eastern California) get, that other places in the Northwest don't get.”
El Niņo actually increases precipitation in the Southwest, according to Mote.
“There's a line (between drier and wetter),” Mote explains. “Central Oregon is at the edge of that line. You don't tend to see as big of an El Niņo effect at Mount Bachelor as you do at Mount Baker (in northern Washington).”
Its relatively high elevation (6,300 feet at the base and 9,065 at the summit) also helps make Bachelor somewhat immune to the warmer temperatures brought on by an El Niņo, according to Mote. But some lower-elevation resorts (those at or below about 4,000 feet) can be dramatically affected by warm temperatures.
“It depends so much on the details of a ski resort,” Mote says. “Can they operate if it's poor snow on the bottom couple hundred feet (of the mountain)?”
Hoodoo, northwest of Sisters, is 4,668 feet at its base and 5,703 feet at the top, while Willamette Pass, southwest of Bend off state Highway 58, is 5,120 at its base and 6,683 feet at the summit.
Matthew McFarland, general manager of Hoodoo, says the resort aims to open the day after Thanksgiving each year, but its typical opening is mid-December. Last year, Hoodoo opened on Dec. 19.
“We do hope we'll get early precipitation with a mild El Niņo year,” McFarland says. “It's always good to be open earlier — more value for a season-pass holder and another whole month of skiing.”
Mote says a weak La Niņa (more precipitation, cooler temperatures in the Northwest) of the last couple of years is shifting into an El Niņo. The latest advisory from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed a weak El Niņo in September, forecast to strengthen through the winter.
But Mote emphasizes that the El Niņo trend is simply a seasonal outlook, and he notes that specific winter storms cannot be predicted this far in advance.
“I wouldn't trust any weather prediction beyond a week,” he says.
So start your snow dance now.
Mark Morical can be reached at 541-383-0318 or at mmorical@bendbulletin.com.
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