Bulletin E-Edition:
Central Oregon looks ahead: Rehabilitating the economy
By Andrew Moore / The Bulletin
Published: January 04. 2009 4:00AM PST| order photo
The Oxford Hotel, a $12 million, seven-story building that will feature retail on the bottom floor and a luxury hotel to be operated by the Bend-based Baney Hotel Group, is scheduled to open in downtown Bend sometime in 2009. “We’re definitely looking forward to the traffic that is going to create and are excited about it,” says Chuck Arnold, executive director of the Downtown Bend Business Association.
Melissa Jansson / The Bulletin
advertisement:
Clouds still hang on the horizon, but many Central Oregon business leaders are happy to put the economic squall that was 2008 behind them.
The following are sentiments from leaders in multiple sectors, in their own words, on what they’re looking forward to in the new year.
Noelle Fredland, marketing manager, The Old Mill District: “I’m excited to see what the (Obama) administration will do and how that affects people’s frame of mind. I’m waiting for the first and second quarter (of 2009) to see if there’s a huge change in people’s confidence or not and I think that will be a telltale sign for 2009.
“I am anticipating that in 2009 … people will get back to basics. I think the upside to the recession is people are appreciating their jobs and family and what they do have, more so than in years past, so I think that’s really positive.
“I think we are going to continue to see some painful things happen in ’09 but I also think we are going to start seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.”
Roger Lee, executive director, Economic Development for Central Oregon: “It’s going to be an interesting year. I’d say not gloomy, but not rosy either.
“We’ve still got 24 recruitment projects we’re working on right now, and the possibility of all those coming together is pretty small, but they represent a pretty big impact on the economy — almost 4,000 jobs, or a $2.3 billion investment if they all came together. The percentage to come through will be small, maybe 20 to 30 percent, but there are some big projects in there that are kind of economy-changers.
“And on the expansion side, we’re working with three dozen companies where job creation would be almost 1,350 or a $139 million investment, if they come through.
“Central Oregon still has the three fastest-growing counties in the state. There are still some storms in 2009, but hopefully we’re emerging out of that and 2010 is a recovery year. Some optimists are saying late ’09, but there is still some impact to what’s going on (that) we’ll see locally. There will be some more closures, maybe some more layoffs.
“We do see bright spots for the traded-sector industries that have a presence in the area, (such as) renewable/alternative energy, software, medical devices and speciality manufacturing. Additionally, we’re hopeful the aircraft/aerospace industry … will rebound in the second half of 2009.”
Dennis Pahlisch, founder, Pahlisch Homes: “We sold 88 homes in 2008, which is no small feat for the year, and we have about 20 production homes in inventory right now, so if you compare 88 sales for 2008, you can see we are going to be through our inventory real quick, so it will be time to start building homes real quickly, so that’s very encouraging for our team this year.
“It’s been awhile since we’ve been able to start new homes, but yes, we are anticipating we’ll start building again in ’09, and we have very favorable interest rates, the best they’ve been in years, so we’re anticipating 85 to 100 new Pahlisch homebuyers for this year.
“We’re not going to be sorry to see 2008 go. We’re very, very optimistic we’ve hit bottom and 2009 will be a rising year. Not record-setting, but a rising year — and we’re looking forward to that.”
Alana Audette, president and CEO, Central Oregon Visitors Association: “I think that as we reflect on 2008, we all learned lots of lessons about being grateful and positive and I think as we move forward in ’09, coming from that perspective, we’ve learned some harsh lessons and we’re going to improve on those in 2009.
“2008 for tourism was all over the board. It started strong and in the second quarter, it went downhill from there, so we are seeing some pillars of optimism for ’09. Honestly, because we believe in this region, because we are competitive, in ’09 we believe things will stay challenging, but we will come through this.”
Patricia Moss, president and CEO, Cascade Bancorp, parent company of Bank of the Cascades: “Thinking about 2009, some of the things we’ve talked about internally is hopefully (seeing) the stabilization and recovery of the markets in 2009-2010 and doing what we can in the local community to help each other, like buying local. What we’re trying to do is be … proactive, to do the positive things we can do.
“Right now, our mortgage applications for mortgage loans is way up. We will not be in the market for development loans for the next year, but really in the market for people both buying and refinancing their personal residences. They have to qualify to do that, and as always we have traditional programs, but we have seen applications go up substantially, so we look forward to helping people do that this year.”
Connie Worrell-Druliner, owner, Express Personnel Services (and Central Oregon resident since 1983): “I think there isn’t a person who hasn’t been affected by the economy in some way or another. I think it’s a time where we re-engineer and reposition ourselves with our companies and look at new ways of thinking, because on the other side of that economic trouble we become stronger and leaner and better businesspeople.
“For us, we’re taking on the motto that ‘Everything will be fine in 2009.’ We’re feeling pretty optimistic. We’re seeing more candidates than we’ve seen in years, good people that have lost their positions, and sometimes multiple people in families, so our job is to make them leave here with dignity and respect.
“I’ve seen this happen before in Central Oregon, during a time when there was little else besides timber and tourism, so as I look at where we stand today, we are on the docket. People know who we are, we have brought in groups like (Economic Development for Central Oregon) that have brought new and diverse businesses here, so we aren’t the same place we were and I think those movements will help us in the long run.”
Barbara Myers, president, Central Oregon Association of Realtors: “I think that there is going to be lots of opportunities in 2009. The market really has changed, but change always offers opportunities, and I think if (mortgage) rates stay where they are, with plenty of inventory and if people are looking to buy, it’s still a good time. The unsettling thing is whether they have job security. And who knows what the economy will do, but I haven’t seen prices at this level (in a long time).
“I think we will continue sales at the same pace they have been. I don’t foresee any huge increases. I think it will be pretty steady like in the last four or five months.
“I think in 2009 it’s going to be business back to the way it used to be, the basics, before the big upswing, and that was still a good market. We certainly have some inventory to get through and that will take some time, but I’m optimistic that we’ll continue along and it’ll probably be a tough year, but if you keep your head down and do what you know (how) to do best, I think you will survive.”
Darren Powderly, partner, Compass Commercial Real Estate: “2008? Happy to see it go. I think we all need to get used to what is a global repricing of assets, and those prices are lower. Lots of people thought Bend would avoid anything on the national level and we know now that’s not true, that we follow the same trends. So the repricing of assets has brought everything down and once we get used to it and reset expectations, we move forward, because people have been paralyzed in 2008.
“2009, I think it’s going to be a good year. I think this first half will not feel so good, but I’m still long-term bullish on Bend, no question.
“On the sales side, it’s been dead for the past six to nine months because there was no credit and incredible fear. And I think this year, credit will ease up and the (credit) crisis will work itself out and we’ll be in a more cautious lending environment and the volume of transactions will increase. So I am excited for opportunities for me and my clients to purchase properties, and for buyers who have been patient, I think there will be incredible opportunities.
“I think things will be more positive when we look back a year from today because I think we are at the peak of bad news.”
Jack Holt, owner, Murray & Holt: “You know, if you watch the talking heads on TV and hear 10 of them, you get 10 totally different answers, and to pretend a guy in Bend, Oregon, has got a clue as to what is happening in Bend in this economy is unrealistic, and particularly when there are so many things going on. You just kind of have to go with the flow and try to keep a step ahead.
“My biggest concern is this nebulous thing called liquidity. There has not been any problem of getting people financed. We are not having trouble getting people financed. Financing is not a problem; it’s people with no confidence.”
Chuck Arnold, executive director, Downtown Bend Business Association: “The Oxford Hotel (a new seven-story hotel at Minnesota Avenue and Lava Road) is going to be opening in late spring, so we’re definitely looking forward to the traffic that is going to create and are excited about it.
“I think we are going to definitely see some changes in the retail environment as the economic climate evolves and we start working our way out of the hole, so I think that is really going to get people on their game to be more competitive and keep market share up — so I think it’s going to be really interesting how it plays out in 2009. I’m not one who subscribes to this being the most catastrophic of times. Yeah, it’s challenging, but spending lots of time talking about it doesn’t make it better.
“Restaurants? At the peak, we had close to 40 places to eat in 16 square blocks, so you have to wonder how much we could sustain even in good times. How many more go? I don’t know, I hear tons of speculation all day long, but will we lose more? It’s fairly likely.
“In 2006 and 2007, I would regularly take lots of calls from investors and companies and those calls have definitely tailed off, so I don’t know what kind of new ideas will be put out there, but one thing that happens is that when space is vacant, it’s not vacant for very long. I think that’s different from the timber crash (in the early 1980s). We didn’t have the diversity our economy has now from different sectors, and I think that’s definitely our strength.”
Troy Reinhart, partner, Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management (formerly Bill Moore & Associates): “2009 has the opportunity to be a bull market. The stock market is usually six to nine months ahead of the bottom of the recession, so when they announced (in December) it officially started in (December 2007), I went, ‘Thank God it’s over.’
“There are still some question marks out there — the credit markets need to get healthier — but barring some economic meltdown we can’t see, we ought to see the market turn around and start to go up.
“In 2008, there was nowhere to hide, not in oil, stocks, real estate. It got so crazy that for many days in November, the three- and six-month Treasury bills traded negative, meaning people paid the government to hold their money. If that isn’t panic and capitulation, I don’t know what is.
“There wasn’t very much good in 2008, so there’s lots of things to look for to be good in ’09. Real estate, probably not, but generally a rally (in everything else) because everything was so beaten up in 2008.”
Andrew Moore can be reached at 541-617-7820 or amoore@bendbulletin.com.
ARTICLE ACCESS: This article is among those available to all readers. Many more articles are available only to E-Edition members. Sign up today!
blog comments powered by Disqus
