A ‘blue wave’ expected, but how strong will it be?
Published: November 02. 2008 4:00AM PST
SALEM — When 75,000 people showed up to cheer Barack Obama on the Portland waterfront this spring, perhaps that was the tip-off. And perhaps the enthusiastic receptions he got in GOP strongholds such as Roseburg and Pendleton.
Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski is among those who think this is going to be a “transformational” election, both for the state and the nation as a whole.
“It is going to change the way America sees itself, and other people around the world see us. We are making history,” said Kulongoski.
The Democrats are in ascendance in Oregon, more so than any time in recent history. With a record number of Democrats registered to vote, it could be a landslide in Oregon for Obama on Tuesday.
The blue wave also could sweep Republican Gordon Smith from the U.S. Senate and strengthen the Democrats’ majorities in the Oregon Legislature.
That could set the stage for Democratic lawmakers in 2009 to be able to push through programs to give more people the chance to earn a living amid the economic downturn.
There’s already talk in Salem of public works programs, funded by bonds and other sources, that could put thousand of Oregonians back to work upgrading mental health facilities, college campuses, prisons, roads and bridges.
Democrats also are promoting a “green” agenda for 2009 to position Oregon as a leader in the clean energy economy. They will consider a climate change package to reduce carbon emissions; establish more wind and solar energy incentives; make commercial and residential buildings more energy efficient; and get more people to buy electric cars.
But there are also challenges ahead — and they are not small.
Economic woes
The Oregon economy, according to state economist Tom Potiowsky, is in recession. That means, first and foremost, that whomever Oregonians put into office will be tasked with trimming the state budget while finding enough funding for social services, which typically see increased demand during tough economic times.
“Anybody who gets elected may face a budget deficit and have to deal with that,” Potiowsky said.
When Oregon faced a recession in 2001, the result was slashed state funding for schools and the Oregon Health Plan. Those cuts meant a truncated school year for Oregon’s students and the state being forced to drop members from the plan.
Drawing up a state budget could become more difficult for lawmakers if voters approve a Bill Sizemore-sponsored initiative measure to allow unlimited deduction of federal taxes on Oregon returns. State officials estimate it would reduce tax revenues by $1 billion a year, forcing cuts’ in funding to schools and other programs.
Sizemore has said there’s enough “fluff” in the state budget to handle it, and that the tax cut would bring fairness to middle- to upper-income earners who don’t get the deduction now.
Despite the rocky economy, observers say there is a sense that Tuesday’s election will signal a new path for the state and the nation.
Obama has held consistent double-digit leads over Republican John McCain and is expected to easily win Oregon’s seven electoral votes.
In Oregon’s U.S. Senate race, which has shattered all previous spending records with TV ads flooding the airwaves for months, Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley has held a small but steady lead over Smith and could well be on his way to becoming Oregon’s next senator.
If Merkley does win, it would mark the first time in 40 years that a sitting senator has been ousted in Oregon. The last time came in 1968, when Republican Bob Packwood defeated Democratic Sen. Wayne Morse.
Chet Orloff, director emeritus of the Oregon Historical Society and a professor at Portland State University, said he thinks a historic shift is under way in Oregon — a “backlash” against the Republican Party after eight years of George Bush as president.
“We’re seeing a political correction here,” Orloff said. “If Gordon Smith gets knocked off, it’s because he’s been tarred by a party and a president that has gotten out of step with most Americans.”
Latino issues
It’s not only anti-Bush sentiment that’s driving things this election.
Barack Obama’s message of change has energized thousands across Oregon. That enthusiasm, said Ramon Ramirez of Northwest Treeplanters and Farmworkers United, is no less evident in the Hispanic community, Oregon’s fastest-growing demographic.
“I think this is probably the most important time in history for Latinos in the state of Oregon,” Ramirez said. “Latinos everywhere are starting to register to vote and make a difference.”
The community’s issues, he said, are no different from those of other Oregonians. Latinos, he said, are looking for a quick end to the war in Iraq and a turnaround in the failing economy.
Just as they are energized by the national race, Ramirez said Latino advocates are looking forward to working with a solidly Democratic Legislature to push through strong rights for fieldworkers.
“One of the first things we’re going to do right after the elections, we’re going to take legislators to the labor camps,” Ramirez said.
Ramirez was referring to settlements, usually run by growers, where workers live often in barracks-like conditions, for a fee, and may have to pay for transportation to and from the fields where they work. Conditions at some are better than at others.
He hopes some firsthand experience will help spark labor reform.
Kulongoski said there’s a feeling in Salem, and around the state, that with the Bush era rapidly coming to a close, state leaders are going to work to find solutions to big problems after Tuesday’s election.
He said he believes a new Democratic majority in the House, with backing from some Republicans, will support new “green” initiatives and public works projects to put people back to work.
“These are difficult economic times, but this election also signals great opportunity for us. It is time for us to be creative and move forward,” the governor said.
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