Bulletin E-Edition:
Two measures, one big vote
Measures 49, 50 bound to kick up two intense, high-dollar campaigns
By James Sinks / The Bulletin
Published: October 03. 2007 4:00AM PSTSALEM — Voters will decide the fate of just two statewide measures on the Nov. 6 special election ballot.
But don’t expect that to translate into a quiet election season — or a thin voters’ pamphlet.
Ballots will go into the mail Oct. 19, and the campaigns for and against the two controversial ballot measures — both of them referred to voters by the 2007 Legislature — are working to a fevered pitch.
With millions of dollars pouring into campaigns, expect to see a blitzkrieg of ads on your television and in your mail. The biggest chunk of money — $4.8 million — comes from the tobacco industry in an attempt to defeat an 84.5-cent-per-pack tax hike.
“Folks will get the sense of urgency from both sides,” said J.L. Wilson, a business lobbyist who is the spokesman for the Oregonians Against the Blank Check Committee.
The group opposes Measure 50 and is financed by Reynolds American, parent company of R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co.
“It’s a game in the fourth quarter and both sides sense they can win this thing, and you’ll see that reflected in the intensity of arguments and advertisements,” he said.
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The voters’ pamphlet, which will be shipped Oct. 10, will feature a record number of arguments regarding a single measure, the Oregon Elections DDivision says, with 117 filed over land use Measure 49.
The two measures under consideration are:
• Measure 49: Which lets voters decide whether to scale back 2004’s Measure 37 property rights law, which opened the door to a wave of development on farmland. The alternative measure would allow landowners to erect as many as 10 houses, or three houses on farmland or in water-scarce areas, while banning larger subdivisions, billboards, commercial and industrial claims that were allowed under Measure 37.
Supporters of Measure 49 had collected $2.79 million as of Tuesday, according to state data; opponents had raised $1.16 million.
• Measure 50: A cigarette tax increase that would pay for public health programs, notably Gov. Ted Kulongoski’s Healthy Kids Plan, which extends coverage to uninsured poor children and subsidizes coverage to some middle class kids. The tax would be put into the state Constitution.
Supporters of Measure 50 collected $1.43 million as of Tuesday; opponents had raised $4.82 million.
Both of the measures were sent by legislators to voters on almost party-line votes, with majority Democrats supporting the referrals and Republicans opposing them.
Representatives of campaigns on both sides of each measure would not reveal their polling data Tuesday. And the director of Oregonians in Action, which wrote the original Measure 37 and opposes Measure 49, was mum about the group’s marketing plans.
“Those are closely guarded secrets and not shared,” said David Hunnicutt, an attorney and the head of the Tigard-based property rights group.
He has been zigzagging the state on the debate circuit — he’ll be in Brookings on Thursday — trying to persuade voters that Measure 49 is flawed and won’t do what the ballot title suggests.
“It takes a while to explain how what you see on ballot isn’t what you get,” Hunnicutt said.
With Measure 49, the question is whether it fixes or guts Measure 37, the law it could replace.
Measure 37 said the state had to compensate landowners if zoning laws hurt their property values, or else waive the offending rules. That has the potential to lead to large developments outside cities, although few of those projects have actually been started.
The proponents of Measure 49 say it would remove the threat of large, farmland-devouring development while still allowing landowners to erect a few houses.
The campaign is gearing up for a major television and direct mail flurry, said campaign manager Liz Kaufman, but also will continue what organizers believe is an even more effective strategy: Deputizing neighbors to talk to their neighbors about how Measure 49 is a better choice, she said.
The owners of tens of thousands of acres across the state have sought waivers to develop under Measure 37. As of Sept. 14, the state reported receiving a total of 6,808 claims worth $19.8 billion, according to the Department of Land Conservation and Development. That number does not include claims filed with cities and counties but not with the state.
A September report by the American Land Institute found that there were 115 Measure 37 claims to divide Deschutes County land zoned for farms, totaling 12,349 acres. In Crook County, there were 59 farm parcels, totaling 39,641 acres. And in Jefferson County, there were 79 farm parcels, adding up to 20,305 acres.
Voters passed Measure 37 with 61 percent support, stoked by complaints the land use system isn’t fair to longtime property owners.
On Measure 50, proponents say they expect to be buffeted by a wave of advertising, so will target their dollars to ensure the public isn’t swayed.
“Tobacco companies will spend a record amount on media to try and mislead voters to protect tobacco profits instead of the health of kids,” said Cathy Kaufman of the Healthy Kids Oregon campaign.
That organization has collected most of its money from the health care industry.
Ads against Measure 50 have narrowed the margin for a proposal that was initially very popular, but polls are still favorable, she said. “I’m very happy with the lead we continue to have, but you can expect we will be fighting down to the last day.”
She said the industry assertions have been misleading. “Our biggest goal is to get the facts out,” she said.
Wilson, whose anti-Measure 50 group argues that the tax measure is poorly drafted and wrongly puts a tax hike in the Constitution, said the industry is not about to roll over in Oregon.
“We have some real objections and something to say,” he said. “If they are going to do this thing, we are going to make them earn it.”
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